Erin Attardi's Sacramento Real Estate Blog

Time for my fifth installment of Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment! I am sure ya'll are just on the edge of your seats to find out just what has transpired in the world of short sales in our Sacramento metro area since the last time? I have deliberately allowed more time to pass between Part IV and Part V, so that we can see if a trend has truly emerged and also see what the YTD totals for 2009 are. For those of you not following along at home, or perhaps if you are reading this for the first time, my short sale experiment is tracking a few different Sacramento zip codes to see what how the short sale activity increases or decreases over time as compared with traditional resale listings (where there is a seller with equity in a "normal transaction") and to bank-owned resale transactions. My hypothesis at the start of this experiment: the number of short sales will grow over time, as will their dominance in our greater Sacramento marketplace (overall percentage of listings). I have continued to list more short sale properties. Let's see how this new data compares to the "control data" for the experiment and also to last month...

95624 is the section of Elk Grove closest to Hwy 99. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 325 active listings there. 244/325 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in December 2009 was $245,000 according to Trendgraphix (an increase over last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 68.6% of all active listings in 95624 were short sales, vs. 68.3% last installment, vs. 75.1% this month. BIG INCREASE over the control data, and a more significant increase over last installment. Number of 2009 closed short sales - 245.

95610 is a section of Citrus Heights. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 170 active listings there. 116/170 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in December 2009 was $196,000 according to Trendgraphix (a significant decrease over last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 60.3% of all active listings in 95610 were short sales, vs. 67.3% last installment, vs. 68.2% this month. BIG INCREASE over the control data, and a slight increase over last installment. Number of 2009 closed short sales - 85.

95826 is a section of Rosemont and College Greens. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 121 active listings there. 72/121 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in October 2009 was also $181,000 according to Trendgraphix (a decrease from last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 62.2% of all active listings in 95826 were short sales, vs. 74.1% last installment, vs. 59.5% this month = BIG DECREASE. Number of 2009 closed short sales - 65.

95864 is a section of Sierra Oaks, Arden Park, and Arden Manor. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 140 active listings there. 41/140 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in December 2009 was $451,000 according to Trendgraphix (a big increase over last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 17.0% of all active listings in 95864 were short sales, vs. 25.8% last installment, vs. 29.3% this month. BIG INCREASE. Number of 2009 closed short sales - 18.

95818 is a section of Midtown, Land Park, and Curtis Park. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 54 active listings there. 14/54 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in December 2009 was $424,000 according to Trendgraphix (big increase over last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 16.0% of all active listings in 95818 were short sales, vs. 25.0% last installment, vs. 25.9% this month. BIG INCREASE over the control data, and a slight increase over the last installment. Number of 2009 closed short sales - 15.

95819 is a section of East Sacramento. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 57 active listings there. 12/57 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in December 2009 was $310,000 according to Trendgraphix (a decrease over last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 19.7% of all active listings in 95819 were short sales, vs. 22.6% last month, vs. 21.1 this month. Still a BIG INCREASE over the control data, but a slight decrease over last installment. Number of 2009 closed short sales - 11.

So in summary - of the six Sacramento area zip codes I am tracking for my experiment, 4 of them experienced an increase in the number of active short sale listings from last installment, while 5 experienced an increase over the control data...the majority of the zip codes posted pretty large proportional increases, and the one decreasing zip code I am tracking posted a huge proportional decrease. My phone definitely keeps ringing and I continue to receive emails - I am fielding lots of inquiries from homeowners looking for more information and insight from my short sale experience...buyers too are really curious about the short sale process since they are encountering so many short sale listings in our marketplace. Also (you will be aware of this if you follow me on Twitter or Facebook), I closed many of my own short sale listings since the last installment of Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment...in fact I closed an Arden short sale last week, and I have another Sacramento short sale closing next week. Until next time!

Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part I
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part II
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part III
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part IV

There has been a lot of buzz lately about just how many short sales are on the market in Sacramento. I can tell you that I have a growing number of short sale listings myself. For me, there is not too much difference in negotiating 5 short sales or 25...I am dealing with the same lenders repetitively, and I have developed a great system to negotiate them. The number of short sales vs. bank owned properties vs. traditional sellers on the market right now is pretty interesting. So interesting, in fact, that I am going to do a little recurring experiment. Let's call it "Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment."

I am no scientist (I took bone-head science - astronomy in college, ok?), but I am going to take a few zip codes and dissect them. How many short sales are there right now? How many will there be in the same areas in a few months?...and over time? What percentage of all of the listings will be short sales? My hypothesis: the number of short sales will grow over time, as will their dominance in our marketplace (overall percentage of listings).

So for my experiment, let's look at the zip codes 95624, 95610, 95826, 95818, and 95819. We'll call this sample (as of today's MLS data) the "control data" for my experiment. We will revisit these cross sections over the next few months, and see how this plays out. Oooh! How fun!!

95624 is the section of Elk Grove closest to Hwy 99. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 290 active listings there. 199/290 listings are short sales. That is more than two-thirds of the inventory there!! The median price in that zip code in May 2009 was $234,000 according to Trendgraphix.

95610 is a section of Citrus Heights. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 126 active listings there. 76/126 listings are short sales. Slightly less than two-thirds of the inventory there. The median price in that zip code in May 2009 was $208,000 according to Trendgraphix.

95826 is a section of Rosemont and College Greens. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 90 active listings there. 56/90 listings are short sales. Slightly less than two-thirds of the inventory there. The median price in that zip code in May 2009 was also $208,000 according to Trendgraphix.

95864 is a section of Sierra Oaks, Arden Park, and Arden Manor. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 147 active listings there. 25/147 listings are short sales. Slightly less than one-fifth of the inventory there. The median price in that zip code in May 2009 was $430,000 according to Trendgraphix.

95818 is a section of Midtown, Land Park, and Curtis Park. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 75 active listings there. 12/75 listings are short sales. Slightly less than one-fifth of the inventory there. The median price in that zip code in May 2009 was $382,000 according to Trendgraphix.

95819 is a section of East Sacramento. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 71 active listings there. 14/71 listings are short sales. Slightly less than one-fifth of the inventory there. The median price in that zip code in May 2009 was $378,000 according to Trendgraphix.

Welp...let's see how this takes shape over time!